Maternal and infant industry will usher in major positive

Mother and baby business information on July 22, 2015

So far, on the first day of the annual largest maternal and infant industry event CBME held in Shanghai, maternal and infant business information saw a piece of good news for the development of the industry in the early morning - the full liberalization of the two child policy is expected to be implemented within this year. It is reported that: [relevant departments have organized research forces to go deep into the western, central and eastern provinces of the country, and the research report has been completed for decision-making reference]. "Mother and baby business information" had also noticed that Sohu's home page had published research papers on domestic demographic scholars calling for the liberalization of the two-child policy for more than ten consecutive days. According to the current public opinion situation and the tone of official institutions, it is only a matter of time before the two-child policy is released. If this time point can be accelerated to within this year, it will undoubtedly be a booster for the current downturn of the whole mother and child industry. Let's wait and see.

Original message:

More than a year after the full implementation of the "single two child" policy, China's fertility policy is expected to be adjusted again in a timely manner on the premise of careful evaluation. A person involved in policy research disclosed to the first financial daily that relevant parties, including the national health and Family Planning Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "health and Family Planning Commission"), have begun to evaluate and promote the comprehensive liberalization of the two-child policy. The source said that if the progress is smooth, the comprehensive two-child policy may be implemented as soon as this year.

In response to the inquiry on July 20, song Jianli, spokesman of the health and Family Planning Commission, said that the latest caliber of the progress of the comprehensive two-child policy was subject to the statement made at the regular press conference of the health and Family Planning Commission in July.

At that time, in response to the reporter's question on "when to fully liberalize the second child", Yang Wenzhuang, director of the grass-roots family planning guidance department of the health and Family Planning Commission, said that we should actively do a good job in the research and demonstration of further adjusting and improving the family planning policy. At the same time, he stressed that "weigh the advantages and disadvantages and make prudent decisions" and "we are stepping up the relevant work according to the requirements of the Central Committee".

Policy evaluation research is ongoing

On July 10, Yang Wenzhuang publicly said that the health and Family Planning Commission had paid attention to the society's many appeals and expectations for the full liberalization of the second child. "At present, the main task is to continue to organize and implement the separate two child policy, strengthen the monitoring of birth population, strengthen the evaluation of the effect of policy implementation, promote the reform of family planning service management, improve relevant supporting measures, and create an environment and lay a foundation for the next adjustment and improvement of birth policy." He said that at the same time, we should also actively do a good job in the research and demonstration of further adjusting and improving the fertility policy.

A detail disclosed by people familiar with the matter is that this year, Shanxi provincial health and Family Planning Commission was prepared to apply to expand the Yicheng rural two-child pilot (as long as rural women have a first child no earlier than 24 years old and a second child no earlier than 28 years old, they will comply with the family planning policy) to one tenth of the province's population. The reply given by the relevant competent authorities is that the comprehensive two child policy will be implemented soon, and it is no longer necessary to expand the pilot of Yicheng two children.

Gu Baochang, a demographer at the population and development research center of Renmin University of China, said that senior officials attach great importance to the adjustment of fertility policies. In March this year, the relevant fertility policy research group participated by Gu Baochang submitted a fertility policy adjustment proposal to the central government for the third time, suggesting the full liberalization of second child fertility. He said that senior leaders gave instructions to the proposal and asked relevant departments to further conduct research to better serve the decision-making of fertility policy.

The impact of full liberalization on the population may be limited

The gradual adjustment of China's fertility policy is behind the great changes in China's population structure, from double only two children to single two children, and then to the comprehensive two children under promotion.

According to the latest data released by the health and Family Planning Commission in July, the proportion of China's population aged 0-14 years accounted for 16.5% of the total population in 2014, 0.1 percentage point lower than the sixth census in 2010, lower than the world average of 26%. The population aged 60 and over is increasing, from 13.3% in 2010 to 15.5% in 2014. At the same time, the working age population has decreased for three consecutive years since 2011, and the population structure problem of accelerating aging and increasing fewer children is very prominent.

What is more worrying is that the research of many research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Renmin University shows that the fertility willingness of the "post-80s" and "post-90s" groups in some parts of China is relatively low.

According to the statistics of the national health and Family Planning Commission, from the implementation of the separate two-child policy last year to the end of May this year, a total of 1.45 million single couples have applied for re childbirth. At present, the number of applications for separate two-child re childbirth is stable at 89000 per month. Considering that the total number of single couples in China is about 11 million, and the proportion of applying for reproduction is only about 13%, which reflects the current situation of low overall fertility willingness to a considerable extent.

After the independent two child policy was cold across the country, the voice of fully liberalizing the two child policy was further rising. A number of research institutions, members of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and deputies to the National People's Congress put forward suggestions to fully liberalize the second child as soon as possible.

According to the economic Blue Book: analysis and forecast of China's economic situation in 2015 released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China's current total fertility rate is only 1.4, far lower than the generation replacement level of 2.1, which is very close to the internationally recognized "low fertility trap" of 1.3. We should transition from a single two child policy to a comprehensive two child policy as soon as possible.

Gu Baochang believes that from the current level of total fertility rate and fertility willingness, after the full liberalization of two children, the total fertility rate can not reach 2, which is still lower than the population generation replacement level of 2.3. Therefore, even if the two-child policy is fully liberalized, the impact on the total population is limited.